What will the IT revolution look like when it hits waste?

I often wonder about different perspectives on something I'm looking at.

One perspective that has been bugging me lately is the IT revolution and how it might affect waste. Specifically, the sort of hyper-innovation that has ripped computing from the basement and lab coats into smartphones and cloud computing in the space of 50 years.

This is not a question of how computing per se is affecting waste. Of course, there are some interesting things going on with data management and so on, but it is fundamentally a business built on people circling big and expensive plant: lab coats circling big, expensive machines. Computing has not changed this, and isn't really what is bugging at me.

What bugs me is how and when waste will make the shift from mega-machines to become personalised. When will it become something that we can all find out self-expression through? It is the shift in attitude that interests me.

It sounds absurd to even propose that something like waste could ever become personalised, ever be a medium for self-expression. Just as a basement full of wires and punch cards and blinking lights could never be the genesis of an awesome flowering of personality. But it is, and so too waste might not only be disrupted forever, but might even disrupt everything forever.

How? Imagine first a series of business models that permit the citizen to easily take control of his or her waste for financial reward. The resource value within the waste drives this new perspective, and you start to see the sort of massive reverse logistics that so characterises scrap steel. You start to see a self-reinforcing loop, not needing capitalism to be overthrown for it to make sense.

Imagine this then driven by high-tech. You can imagine little bins that don't just store your rubbish, but deconstruct it for sale of the components, pocket sized units that deconstruct your rubbish when you're on the go. Tiny micro-factories at every street corner replacing the vending machine, taking materials in from people walking by and using them to make your next purchase as you wait, bleeping out little calls to people who have the stuff they need. Credits automatically credited for this, the end of bulk logistics, the ushering in of personalised consumption.

But it doesn't need high-tech, and it certainly doesn't need this high-tech, for the disruption. All it needs is a disruptive business model to start us down the path. That little disruption, that upstart, will set us on the path to changing everything. Just like the clunky mini-computer led us to the PC to the smartphone and cloud computing.

I wonder about this stuff. I'm not so egotistical to think I need to make it happen, but I can't help feeling it is about to happen and now is the perfect time to be involved. I am sufficiently egotistical to think I can be part of the happening.

What would a Silicon Valley for waste look like?

We are all familiar with the awesome reputation of Silicon Valley as a hotbed of entrepreneurship. It is a classic example of the synergistic effects of an ecology of excellence growing up around an industry. Ideas attract brilliant minds attract venture capitalists.

More important, however, is the prevailing ethos that you have a crack. Trying and failing is better than never trying for fear of failing. Or trying to cover yourself against all risks before you begin. Business is risky. Good business people accept that, minimise their risks and then begin.

This sort of culture is sorely missed in waste management. It is a field that has managed to convince itself that it needs government support, that it is only able to succeed if it is big. An enormous risk averse edifice that grinds out incremental improvement only when led by the nose by government. An industry that leans heavily on public underwriting of private profits, and even then manages to get it wrong (no names here, of course).

Imagine if the norm in waste management was for entrepreneurs to get out there and start creating little eruptions of businesses. Or, more accurately, little disruptions. What might that look like?

You might see some very nimble companies focusing on serious product differentiation in otherwise bog standard markets. This would be great for customers. You would certainly see exciting solutions to avoid the capital intensive and largely monopolised landfill. Indeed, clever ideas would sidestep high capital requirements and barriers to entry across the board. I reckon you'd also end up with an ecosystem that drove landfill close to its deathbed.

A Silicon Valley of waste would emulate the start-up process for technology companies, starting as bare bones business that delight their customers, and growing into business that are so prevalent that you can't imagine the world without them. It would also provide the space for ideas to be tested and abandoned without disgrace.

To get to this point will be a tricky chicken and egg problem. Some sort of venture capital is required to get this off the ground, but that won't happen until there is a track record. And a track record is hard to achieve without funding. And, finally, brilliant minds are especially tricky to attract in the absence of a track record or funding.

I think it is a nut that can be cracked, and will be cracked by innovation in business models. I will blog on this in a later blog. I will also blog on what a constellation of small waste businesses might look like.

Thanks for following this tale, and I welcome any comments or suggestions you might have.